DIPLOMACIA E RELAÇÕES TRILATERAIS CHINA-EUA-JAPÃO: UMA ANÁLISE DE CONTEÚDO DE DISCURSOS NO PERÍODO 2008-2018
Palavras-chave:
Análise de conteúdo, China, Estados Unidos, JapãoResumo
O objetivo desse trabalho é apreciar em que medida os discursos diplomáticos acompanham os relacionamentos trilaterais China-EUA-Japão, no período 2008-2018. Por meio de inferência estatística sobre orientação semântica de discursos online dos ministros de relações exteriores e secretário de Estado, descobrimos que convergências e divergências no relacionamento trilateral são refletidas nos discursos, apesar de encontrarmos maior adequação dos discursos chineses e japoneses do que dos norte-americanos às práticas observadas na realidade.
Referências
BUSKIRK, Trent D.; WILLOUGHBY, Lisa M.; TOMAZIC, Terry J. (2013) Nonparametric
statistical techniques. In LITTLE, Todd D. (ed.). The Oxford handbook of quantitative methods:
Statistical analysis, v. 2. New York: Oxford University Press, 106-141.
BUSZYNSKI, Leszek. (2013) Negotiating with North Korea: the Six Party Talks and the nuclear
issue. New York: Routledge.
CHOONG, William. (2015) Defence and Japan’s Constitutional Debate. Survival, 57 (2): 173-192.
CIA (Central Intelligence Agency). (2019) Country Comparison:: Public Debt. , publicado em The
world factbook [https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/
rank.html#JA]. Disponibilidade:19/11/2019.
DAHL, R. A. (1957) The concept of power. Behavioral Science, 2(3), 201-215.
DEPARTAMENTO DE ESTADO. (2009a) Speeches and Remarks, publicado em [https://
-2009.state.gov/secretary/former/powell/remarks/index.htm]. Disponibilidade: 02/03/2020.
______. (2009b) What the Secretary has been saying, publicado em [https://2001-2009.state.gov/
secretary/former/powell/remarks/index.htm]. Disponibilidade: 02/03/2020.
______. (2017a) Former Secretary Clinton's Remarks, publicado em [https://
-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/index.htm]. Disponibilidade: 02/03/2020.
______. (2017b) Secretary Kerry's Remarks, publicado em [https://2009-2017.state.gov/
secretary/remarks/index.htm]. Disponibilidade: 02/03/2020.
______. (2018) Remarks: Former Secretary of State Tillerson, publicado em [https://
www.state.gov/remarks-former-secretary-of-state-tillerson/]. Disponibilidade: 02/03/2020.
______. (2020). Speeches: Secretary Pompeo, publicado em [https://www.state.gov/speechessecretary-pompeo/]. Disponibilidade 02/03/2020.
DORNELLES JR., Arthur C. (2014) A modernização militar da China e a distribuição de poder no
Leste Asiático. Contexto Internacional, 36 (1): 145-170.
DUARTE, Érico Esteves. (2013) Military Power, Financial Crisis and International Security
Panorama in the 21st Century. Austral: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations,
(3): 9-43, publicado em [https://seer.ufrgs.br/austral/article/view/31365]. Disponibilidade:
/02/2020.
FERDINAND, Peter; WANG, Jue. (2013) China and the IMF: from mimicry towards pragmatic
international institutional pluralism. International Affairs, 89 (4): 895-910, publicado em [https://
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-2346.12050]. Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
GAIMUSHŌ. (2012) Building Order and Making Rules in the Asia-Pacific Age, publicado em
[https://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/fm/gemba/speech_121026.html]. Disponibilidade: 02/03/2020.
______. (2020) Speeches by the Foreign Minister, publicado em [https://www.mofa.go.jp/
announce/fm/index.html]. Disponibilidade: 02/03/2020.
GRIMMER, Justin; STEWART, Brandon M. (2013) Text as data: The promise and pitfalls of
automatic content analysis methods for political texts. Political Analysis, 21 (3): 267-297,
publicado em [https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mps028>]. Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
HOLLANDER, Myles; WOLFE, Douglas A.; CHICKEN, Eric. (2014) Nonparametric statistical
methods. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
IKENBERRY, John G. (2001) After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding
of Order after Major Wars. [S.l.]: Princeton University Press.
JENTLESON, Bruce W. (2010) American Foreign Policy: the dynamics of choice in the 21st
century. New York: WW Norton.
KATAGIRI, Nori (2019) Shinzo Abe's Indo-Pacific Strategy: Japan's recent achievement and future
direction. Asian Security, 1-22, publicado em [https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/
1080/14799855.2019.1607304?journalCode=fasi20]. Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
KROEBER, Arthur R. (2016) China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know. New York:
Oxford University Press.
KRUGMAN, Paul R.; DOMINQUEZ, Kathryn M.; ROGOFF, Kenneth. (1998) It's baaack: Japan's
slump and the return of the liquidity trap. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1998 (2):
3 7 - 2 0 5 , p u b l i c a d o e m [ h t t p s : / / w w w. b r o o k i n g s . e d u / w p - c o n t e n t / u p l o a d s /
/06/1998b_bpea_krugman_dominquez_rogoff.pdf]. Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
LEE, Seungjoo. (2016) Institutional balancing and the politics of mega-FTAs in East Asia. Asian
Survey, 56 (6): 1055-1076, publicado em [https://as.ucpress.edu/content/56/6/1055].
Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
MANNING, Christopher; SURDEANU, Mihai; BAUER, John; FINKEL, Jenny; BETHARD,
Steven J.; MCCLOSKY, David. (2014) The Stanford CoreNLP natural language processing toolkit.
Proceedings of 52nd annual meeting of the association for computational linguistics: system
demonstrations, 55-60, publicado em [https://nlp.stanford.edu/pubs/StanfordCoreNlp2014.pdf].
Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
MEARSHEIMER, John J. (2001) The tragedy of great power politics. New York: : WW Norton
& Company.
MILLIKEN, Jennifer. (1999) The study of discourse in international relations: A critique of research
and methods. European Journal of International Relations, 5 (2): 225-254, publicado em
[https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354066199005002003]. Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS. (2020) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s
Republic of China, publicado em [https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/]. Disponibilidade:
/03/2020.
MONTEIRO, Nuno P. (2014) Theory of unipolar politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
NAUGHTON, Barry J. (2006) The Chinese economy: Transitions and growth. Cambridge: MIT
press.
NEUENDORF, Kimberly A. (2002) The content analysis guidebook. Thousand Oaks: Sage.
NOLAND, Marcus. (2018) US trade policy in the Trump administration. Asian Economic Policy
Review, 13 (2): 262-278, publicado em [https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/
aepr.12226]. Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
OCDE (Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico). (2019) General
government debt (indicator), publicado em [https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-governmentdebt.htm]. Disponibilidade: 20/11/2019.
OGLESBY, Donna Marie. (2016) Diplomatic language. In CONSTANTINOU, Costas M.; KERR,
Pauline; SHARP, Paul (Ed.). The SAGE handbook of diplomacy, [s.l.]: Sage, 242-254.
OLIVEIRA, Henrique Altemani. (2012) Brasil e China: Cooperação Sul-Sul e Parceria
Estratégica. Belo Horizonte: Fino Traço Editora.
PASHAKHANLOU, Arash Heydarian. (2017) Fully integrated content analysis in international
relations. International Relations, 31 (4): 447-465.
QUAH, Danny. (2011) The global economy’s shifting centre of gravity. Global Policy, 2 (1): 3-9,
publicado em [https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2010.00066.x].
Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
RIFFE, D., LACY, S., FICO, F., & WATSON, B. (2013) Analyzing media messages: Using
quantitative content analysis in research. Nova York: Routledge.
SHAMBAUGH, David L. (2013) China goes global: The partial power. Oxford: Oxford
University Press.
SHESKIN, David J. (2004) Handbook of parametric and nonparametric statistical procedures.
Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute). (2019) SIPRI Military Expenditure
Database, publicado em [https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex]. Disponibilidade: 15/11/2019.
STOKES, Doug. (2014) Achilles’ deal: Dollar decline and US grand strategy after the crisis.
Review of International Political Economy, 21 (5): 1071-1094, publicado em [https://
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09692290.2013.779592]. Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
STRANGE, Susan. (1998) States and markets. London/ New York: Continuum.
SUTTER, Robert G. (2012) Chinese foreign relations: Power and policy since the Cold War.
Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.
TABOADA, Maite. (2016) Sentiment analysis: an overview from linguistics. Annual Review of
Linguistics, 2:325-347.
TABOADA, Maite; BROOKE, Julian; TOFILOSKI, Milan; VOLL, Kimberly; STEDE, Manfred.
(2011) Lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis. Computational linguistics, 37 (20):
-307, publicado em [https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/COLI_a_00049].
Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
TELLIS, Ashley J. (2014) The Geopolitics of the TTIP and the TPP. Adelphi Papers, 54 (450):
-120, publicado em [https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19445571.2014.1019720].
Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.
WORLD BANK. (2019a). GDP (current US$), publicado em [https://data.worldbank.org/
indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN-JP&most_recent_value_desc=false]. Disponibilidade:
/11/2019.
______. (2019b) GDP growth (annual %), publicado em [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=US-CN-JP]. Disponibilidade: 19/11/2019.
ZHANG, Yun. (2014) Multilateral means for bilateral ends: Japan, regionalism, and China–Japan–
US trilateral dynamism. The Pacific Review, 27 (1): 5-25, publicado em [https://
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09512748.2013.788065]. Disponibilidade: 25/02/2020.